April 16, 2018

A new WaPo poll "finds that the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates dropped by more than half since the beginning of the year."

"At the same time, there has been a slight increase in President Trump’s approval rating, although it remains low. Measures of partisan enthusiasm paint a more mixed picture of the electorate in comparison to signs of Democratic intensity displayed in many recent special elections.... The Post-ABC poll finds that 40 percent approve of the president, up slightly from 36 percent in January to his highest level of support since last April.... The survey shows the GOP making a more pronounced shift among white voters, who now prefer Republicans by a 14-point margin over Democrats, up from five points in January. Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees, slightly larger than an 18-point GOP advantage three months ago."

Link.

Why is a 29-point gap considered only "slightly larger" than an 18-point gap? And in 3 months? Seems like a huge leap. Am I misreading that? Have I forgotten the meaning of "slightly"?

214 comments:

1 – 200 of 214   Newer›   Newest»
Jersey Fled said...

Simple answer: any time a republican's numbers go up, regardless of how much, the WAPO style guide requires that the word "slightly" be added.

surfed said...

They've got it on the perma-press spin cycle.

Jack Wayne said...

When you add in the bias in favor of Democrats in a WP poll, the gap is slightly larger than 29.

FIDO said...

How are the Dems supposed to win if they have alienated 61% of the electorate?

This is pure minimizing. The uphill battle for moderate Democrats is not what THEY believe:
It is what the National Party will demand of them. And that is a very tough sell since the National Party
has gone so extremist.

Jersey Fled said...

Funny that I can't find any cross-tabs on how black and Hispanic voters without college degrees polled.

I guess the implication that only dumb whites vote for Republicans doesn't have a counterpart on the other side.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

Less partisan polls show Trump with a 50% approval rating. Better than Obama's at the same point in his presidency.

gg6 said...

Liberal arithmetic. They much prefer adjectives over digits.

rehajm said...

1. Are we back to believing polls? I don't recall a mea culpa or explanation of how standards and practices have changed for the better

2. How meaningful are generic candidate polls when polls with actual people attached to them are unreliable?

3. If this is the best WaPo can do with spinning positivity for lefties that can't be a good sign for lefties.

4. Where's the wave? I recall so much discussion about how tough midterms will be for President Hillary so she'd better get her policies up and running quickly. Looking at the electoral map midterms should still be tough for President Hillary.

gspencer said...

"Have I forgotten the meaning of slightly'?"

No, you haven't forgotten, but the leftist-driven MSM, following its well-worn manipulative ways, is hoping you have, and is simply telling you what to think. Kinda like, "Islam is a peaceful religion" when the evidence of history and our own eyes tells us otherwise.

Carol said...

WaPo needs to school its readers, so that they read the news in the proper light.

the 4chan Guy who reads Althouse said...

"...the gap between support for Democratic vs. Republican House candidates..."

Like, I think the Washington Post would even get Thigh Gap wrong.

DougWeber said...

It is interesting to see the disconnect between the public and the private sector. Trump was the CEO involved with a take over. He is now in charge of the old company. In every circumstance I have seen, the new CEO always asks for the loyalty of the old management structure. Are they in with the new environment or should they leave because they cannot live with it? Will they be loyal to their old boss, who lost the fight, and cause trouble with the new one? These are the questions that Trump, as a CEO of a business, reasonably asks. He is not asking for Mafia level loyalty; just are you comfortable with the new setup and willing to work within it. I think Comey really needed to answer no to that.

Big Mike said...

How are the Dems supposed to win if they have alienated 61% of the electorate?

Because it isn't the entire electorate, only that part which is white and works at blue collar jobs -- the plumber who installed my water softener, the HVAC repairman who serviced my furnace, those sorts of people. Folks who build things and install things and fix things.

gilbar said...

"Why is a 29-point gap considered only "slightly larger" than an 18-point gap? ... Have I forgotten the meaning of "slightly"? "

it comes to about a 61% increase; i remember complaining back in 2014, when my boss gave me a 61% raise: I was OUTRAGED!!!!!

Big Mike said...

I have a theory that the people who lead the Dumbocrats are not really politicians. They are ideologues and political theorists, but not the sort of person who is comfortable going to county fairs and eating corn dogs and, above all, listening to what people have to say. Can anyone here picture Nancy Pelosi or Joe Biden or Chuck Schumer listening to anyone who doesn't have an eight or nine or ten digit net wealth?

Reading the comments here posted by roesch, Toothless, Inga, Freder, ARM, and the like, it occurs to me that the Democrats are in the grip of a major delusion that they can insult people who disagree with them (and, yes, they get insulted right back but see who starts it) and generally back extremist policies and positions, and still win votes. Doesn't seem likely to work from where I sit. Perhaps I'm wrong, but I don't think so.

Mike said...

Just think what results the GOP could expect if they actually did what they say?

rhhardin said...

Fractions of percentages make no sense in the first place.

If your approval drops from 80% to 40%, your approval has dropped by 50%.

But your disapproval has gone from 20% to 60%, a 300% rise.

Is 50% or 300% the news number.

Curious George said...

Where's our resident dullard cackling about a "blue wave?"

the 4chan Guy who reads Althouse said...

"Why is a 29-point gap considered only "slightly larger" than an 18-point gap?"

Like, if points were centimeters then 18 points would be 7 inches, and 29 centimeters would be, like, 11-and-a-half inches.

So if you were talking about the difference between a 7-inch cock and a cock that was 11-and-a-half inches you'd be talking about quite a difference. I mean, even chicks would get this math.

Because an 11-and-a-half inch cock is pretty big, even for a porn star and shit.

William said...

I disapprove of tanning beds and extramarital affairs with pornstars. I'm okay with long ties. So far as the President's policies go, he seems to be on the right side of most issues,

DanTheMan said...

>>I remember complaining back in 2014, when my boss gave me a 61% raise: I was OUTRAGED!!!!!

Of course you were. You budgeted and planned for a 100% pay raise, so you ended up a net 39% pay CUT!

Government math.

Michael K said...

The GOP voters may be forgetting how the feckless GOP Congress voted on the pork fest bill. That will help.

Also, the Dims seem to be doubling down on stupid. WE have the worst political class in our history.

Mark Twain said, "No man's life, liberty or property is safe while Congress is in session" but that was an exaggeration. Congress had much less power to cause damage then.

Pettifogger said...

Journolist Stylebook:

Use the adjective "slight" for any increase in Republican support.

Use the adjectives "vast" or "major" for any increase in Democratic support.

dreams said...

Why would anyone (other than a liberal) believe a Washington Post/ABC poll?

The Cracker Emcee Classic said...

By every historical precedent it would be very odd if 2018 wasn’t a banner year for Democrats. Skepticism about polls cuts both ways and it’s clear who’s voters will be most motivated to turn out in November. The good news is that the Democrats will absolutely, positively, beyond-any-shadow-of-a-doubt, take their new majority and fuck it up. You don’t have to be a psychologist or a poly sci prof to see how their current state of hysteria locks in failure. So, four more years, y’all.

Fernandistien said...

I can't seem to Facebook up to the facts
I'm tense and nervous and I can't relax
I can't count 'cause my bed's on fire
Don't touch me I'm a real live wire

WaPo Pollster
Qu'est-ce que c'est
Fa-fa-fa-fa-fa-fa-fa-fa-fa-far better
Run run run run run run run away oh oh

buwaya said...

No idea how accurate these polls are, but if correct, they point to even greater ethnic polarization.

The parties are getting more and more tribal. Whites are now not merely trending Republican, but are at least as Republican as "hispanics" are Democrat, if not more so. The main holdouts are parts of the upper-middle class and wealthy, which are Democrats through class and cultural programming, mainly the result of educational indoctrination.

Ethnic politics is the way of the future.

Not poll-based, but my observation of the situation on the ground - Given also the occupational split and the high rate of intermarriage, the established parts of what could be considered the "hispanic" population do also have a tendency to identify as working class whites. That is, if they have gone a few steps into integration.

California has great numbers of "white hispanics". The sort of people and workplaces that this and similar polls would consider the white working class, that is, skilled and semi-skilled workers, are very integrated, especially with hispanics.

The real hispanic voting blocks are very urban populations, unskilled labor, women, and anywhere that there is a population that is lagging behind in integration, such as the LA basin. There are large areas that are 70-90% hispanic.

Inga said...

“President Donald Trump’s approval rating has fallen by four points, according to a new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll.

Just 39 percent of the 900 adults surveyed said they approved of the president’s performance, compared with 57 percent who disapprove—in a drop of four points on last month’s poll.

And the poll, which was conducted from April 8-11, also showed the Democrats enjoying a 7-point advantage over the Republicans heading into the 2018 midterm elections.

The NBC/WSJ poll also follows a recent survey from NBC News/Survey Monkey that showed the president’s approval rating had dipped in previous Trump stronghold the South, however, another poll released on Sunday by ABC News/Washington Post had the president’s approval rating at 40 percent.”

http://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-poll-russia-probe-raid-cohen-886402

mikee said...

I look forward to ignoring the polls between now and November.
And after the election, too.

mockturtle said...

"Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees"

Never mind that college educated whites also gave the edge to Trump in 2016. Let us continue to imply that people who support Trump are ignorant and uneducated. Since the pollsters failed miserably in their Presidential polls two years ago, why should they assume anyone would take them seriously now?

FIDO said...

The scary thing is that male black and Hispanic voters also seem to like the cut of Trumps jib.

He is loud, masculine, had a supermodel wife and loves gold.

Cracking THOSE voting blocks or just suppressing their votes would be devastating to Democratic prospects.

But honestly, their ethnic voters are too clumped up to be any use in most Congressional elections.

mockturtle said...

To amend my prior comment, let me say that I do not consider someone 'ignorant' because they lack a college degree any more than I consider a person knowledgeable because they have one. Or two. Or three. I was merely criticizing the MSM narrative.

William said...

You can disapprove of Trump's behavior in some respects and still approve of his policies and performance as President. I don't know why the supporters of Clinton and Ted Kennedy find this so hard to understand.

Big Mike said...

@mockturtle, I just deleted my comment ripping you a new one. My plumber is a very intelligent individual and people who look down on him for lacking a college degree deserve to have flooded basements.

Angle-Dyne, Angelic Buzzard said...

mock:

"Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees"

Never mind that college educated whites also gave the edge to Trump in 2016. Let us continue to imply that people who support Trump are ignorant and uneducated.


I guess that works on people who think "college degree" = "educated". E.g., uneducated people with college degrees. (That example includes some people with degrees from highly competitive/high-prestige joints, not just the schmucks with community college diplomas in Intersectionality.)

Achilles said...

buwaya said...
“No idea how accurate these polls are, but if correct, they point to even greater ethnic polarization. “

This is the goal of this poll.

Trump has done amazing things for black employment. He is following through on immigration.

This poll harps on white voters in order to keep black voters on the democrat plantation. A lot of black voters are noticing democrats don’t really do much for them and only say things to get votes.

If the republicans put a strong speaker of the house in place before the election and motivate republican voters 2018 will go well for them.

Paul Ryan retiring may save them from their betrayals of republican voters.

Angle-Dyne, Angelic Buzzard said...

P.S. Not meaning to imply that I thought your comment was in any way ripping on people without college degrees.

mockturtle said...

Here is another factor to consider: There is another demographic consideration totally ignored by pollsters and that is the people who don't participate in polls. I happen to be one. Many years ago I began responding to a telephone poll but it went on and on and the questions became increasing personal, e.g., income level, religious views, etc. so I hung up. There are probably more than a few people for whom polls are meddlesome and tedious.

mockturtle said...

P.S. Not meaning to imply that I thought your comment was in any way ripping on people without college degrees.

Thank you, Angle. Perhaps you may also have read my addendum.

rhhardin said...

Telephone pollsters are not allowed to hang up, so you can keep them on the line as long as possible to discourage the practice. Engage them in conversation.

If they hang up it ruins the statistics.

Eventually they will hang up, but it's extremis time then.

Michael said...

People are becoming less willing to be intimidated by their media/academic "betters" as the 18-month Progressive freak-out becomes ever more tedious and pointless.

Francisco D said...

Ever notice how polls get tighter as the election looms?

The conventional wisdom is that the closer races reflected voters making up their minds.

I think it's because pollsters tighten up their sampling, so they look better after the election is over.

The Dems are almost always ahead early in the cycle - coincidence?

I think not. They are trying to give fools like Inga false hope and thus motivate them to vote in order to be part of the winning team.

Birkel said...

Inga thinks a 7 percentage point Democrat advantage on the generic poll is good news for her. Inga is not very bright.

Given that the majority-minority districts will be well over 70% Democrat voters and Democrats have segregated themselves into cities, that 7% generic ballot augurs for Republican pick-ups of close races.

But the rest of you probably knew that. Nobody tell Inga.

DanTheMan said...

The D's learned their lesson: Don't turn off the Fraud machine, even if all the polls say you are way ahead.

Lloyd W. Robertson said...

In a way it's amazing that there is any good news for Trump in the polls at all. And yes, Inge, there is some good news for him.

The tax bill was the work of "ordinary Republicans," and doesn't poll well. The spending bill spreads the peanut butter to a lot of people, but not for Trump's "signature" promises. It's a bill that almost any president probably could have delivered. On immigration Trump now seems to want a huge amnesty as much as anything else--just like a lot of other politicians, of both parties. Progressives have always hated him, and identify him as something from the 50s that we should put behind us. Some of his supporters now say he has abandoned his core supporters. Maybe he can ride a narrative like this: although he tries to resist the Washington swamp, and does so for longer than anyone else would, in the end he has to give in to them on some important matters. He tests the limits of what his core supporters can expect; he will often disappoint them, but he is still all they've got; and he somewhat surprisingly wants to do a lot of the same things a lot of other politicians want to do. This could be made to sound pathetic--all talk, little action; but it might work.

Big Mike said...

A lot of eyes will be on Conor Lamb. If he falls meekly into line behind Pelosi then he will probably lose in the fall (N.B., he has filed to run in a different districtso who knows?) and it will be that much harder for other moderate Democrats to follow his playbook.

Michael K said...

"To amend my prior comment, let me say that I do not consider someone 'ignorant' because they lack a college degree "

My wife's three sons do not have college degrees. Her three grandsons do not either. One son builds custom houses in Oregon. Some of the houses I have seen on visits are 7,000 square feet. His brother-in-law builds winery equipment in the Oregon wine country and, as a hobby, rebuilds Ford 1933 roadsters. He has six, three restored. Do you know what a restored 1933 Ford roadster sells for ?

Take a look.

One of her grandsons works for his uncle rebuilding older Porches, especially 356 models. Do you know what a restored Porsche 356 sells for ?

Take a look.

These are young men who work with their hands and do extremely well.

My youngest son does not have a bachelors degree. He owns a home in Orange County that is probably worth $1 million.

Nonapod said...

Seems like there may be a glitch in the whole "blue wave" narrative. We shall see. But we've seen in the past how the liberal media behave's as a positive feedback loop, transforming what are ultimately shown to outlier events significant indicators of an imagined trend. These notions are then reinforced through repetition, making them seem to be inevitable truths (Hillary's assured victory being the most recent example) rather than what they really are, wishcasting. The MSM can be a very powerful amazing self-delusion machine.

Big Mike said...

One question about November elections. Will black voters see the increased employment statistics among black youths and show support for Trump by voting Republican? Too soon to tell, but it strikes me that going into black churches and saying "Democrats gave you lousy schools and midnight basketball while we Republicans gave you jobs" might just resonate a bit. I've worked on campaigns for black Republicans, so I'm very cynical about prying away black voters from the Democrats that abuse them.

rehajm said...

Seems like there may be a glitch in the whole "blue wave" narrative

The opposition party wave because that's what it looks like happened the last couple of times but it has much more to do with the composition and geography of the races up for grabs instead of some 'off party' trend.

The fact it's what MSM wants to have happen doesn't help matters.

Chuck said...

So when the Fox News Channel becomes a 24/7 outlet for favorable Trump propaganda, which much of the time equates with, "anti-Republican Congressional leadership", I can see how that might occur. Hannity; Limbaugh; Savage; Levin; the guys who really, really don't like Congressional Republicans.

Let's see how that works for them. We've got an election coming up. Elections have consequences.

Big Mike said...

@Michael K, the first few '33s at your link at hot rods. Does he rebuild them or does he hot rod them? (Mind you, I wouldn't mind owning a '33 hot rod.) And I think you mean "Porsches."

Khesanh 0802 said...

The answer to Ann's question: "Why is a 29-point gap considered only "slightly larger" than an 18-point gap? And in 3 months? Seems like a huge leap." is that, as Taranto would say, "math is hard". No reporter today is capable of doing the math that shows an almost 40% swing toward Republicans. Then again maybe they don't want to put it in such simple terms for their over-educated readers. Ann once again asks the critical question that exposes what morons we have to deal with in the press.

MikeR said...

Best to look at polls overall.
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/president_trump_job_approval-6179.html
https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/other/2018_generic_congressional_vote-6185.html
Clear gains for Republicans, clearly a ways to go yet.

Khesanh 0802 said...

@Inga I'll see your poll and raise you one. Rasmussen's poll of likely voters has Trump's approval at 51 % today. Don't try to tell me that Rasmussen is anymore bias one way than NBC is the other.

roesch/voltaire said...

The gap will change once Michael Cohen's documents are revealed in court.

Khesanh 0802 said...

@Michael K Despite the absolute accuracy of Twain's statement your claim that Congress had less power then is inaccurate. Until FDR usurped a significant amount of legislative power Congress was the preeminent place where harm was done. That was the way the system was defined by the Founders. We have become used to significantly enhanced executive power that the Founders would have found extremely puzzling, if not dangerous.

Bruce Hayden said...

"The tax bill was the work of "ordinary Republicans," and doesn't poll well."

The only reason that it doesn't is because the MSM tells them that it is bad.

The elephant in the room that everyone is studiously ignoring, and esp the left here, is that the economy is better than it has been in a long time. The eight year Obama Recession is finally over. Unemployment is down, and for some historically underemployed minorities, like black males, down to historic levels. We are talking for them maybe the best employment picture of most of our adult lives. Why the economic boom? Sure, Trump has hyped new jobs. But the reality is that it is due to two things. One is a cut in regulations. We are now approaching oil independence. Turning into a net exporter of hydrocarbons. And, then there are the tax cuts. Sure, the left, the Dems, try their .hardest to convince everyone that the tax cuts were bad. But they were only bad for people living in deep blue urban bubbles (as much of the national MSM do) because they lost the rest of us paying for part of their high state and local taxes. Most of the rest of the country is seeing lower taxes. And, maybe more importantly, is driving the current economic boom with the corporate tax cuts. And, here is the key, every Democrat running for reelection voted against the tax cuts. Voted against the economic boom that we are experiencing. No wonder the MSM (Dem operatives with bylines) have been working so hard to discredit the tax cuts - because they know that if they didn't, the wave would be Red this year, not Blue.

Khesanh 0802 said...

@R/V Never give up hope. Wasn't Mueller your go-to guy a week ago?

Tina Trent said...

Yes you have misapprehended the word "slightly.". It is supposed to convey: " we are forced to struggle against our eroding centrifugal proximity to reality by relying on the sticky glue of terms such as "slightly" when we ought to be using "sesmic" instead.

Bay Area Guy said...

Live the polls, die by the polls.

One would think -- based on the results of the 2016 Presidential election -- that one would take caution in over-interpreting supposedly favorable polls.

Just a suggestion.....

Angle-Dyne, Angelic Buzzard said...

Chuck: So when the Fox News Channel becomes a 24/7 outlet for favorable Trump propaganda, which much of the time equates with, "anti-Republican Congressional leadership", I can see how that might occur. Hannity; Limbaugh; Savage; Levin; the guys who really, really don't like Congressional Republicans.

Let's see how that works for them. We've got an election coming up. Elections have consequences.


Well, that's the idea, anyway. The GOPe doesn't seem to clear on the concept, though.

traditionalguy said...

Despite the deserate and bitter 24/7 Attack propaganda on the crazy KGB agent Trump, the sane voters notice the guy now has a 1000 batting average. Even Ted Williams missed a few

Ken B said...

Trump is at 50. How is that low?

WK said...

Why is a 29-point gap considered only "slightly larger" than an 18-point gap?

Crumbs.....

Ken B said...

Mockturtle, Michael K:
Wander over to Jerry Coyne's blog someday. There it’s pretty explicit that no degree = ignorant.

YoungHegelian said...

@Bruce Hayden,

The elephant in the room that everyone is studiously ignoring, and esp the left here, is that the economy is better than it has been in a long time. The eight year Obama Recession is finally over

I don't disagree with the reasons that you listed as at least partially responsible for the economic boom. But, I also think there is another reason, out there, but never discussed for the boom.

Even before Trump, corporate profits were up, but the companies were just sitting on the profits, doing nothing with them. Why? I think it's because American business simply didn't trust the Obama administration. No businessman wanted to go on Meet The Press & say they distrusted the Light Worker & His Minions because it might have meant being labeled racist by a hostile press, & no business wanted that.

Do the reasons you gave count as causes for the boom? Yes, but I think they're not sufficient. I think the difference is one of attitude, where now business knows it has an administration that'll, if not support it, at least leave it alone.

Darrell said...

Polls in the last thirty years have been designed to LEAD, rather than INFORM , public opinion.

Fernandistien said...

Ken B said...
Wander over to Jerry Coyne's blog someday. There it’s pretty explicit that no degree = ignorant.


I read it regularly and never noticed that, and to the contrary:

"If you want a quick overview on evolution, this might be the book for you. For a more comprehensive take aimed at scientifically literate adults (no degree required), check out Oxford University Press’s Evolution: A Very Short Introduction by Brian and Deborah Charlesworth."

Daniel Jackson said...

This sort of measurement error is the source of:

"WHY AM I NOT 50 POINTS AHEAD?"

Bay Area Guy said...

Stormy Daniels is stripping again -- she's on a Make America Horny Again tour.

Generally, I support this. Indeed, she really should run for political office as Sandra Fluke did. That's kinda how the Dems roll.

Sam L. said...

Ah, that WaPoo! Fudging the numbers again.

Inga said...

I heard this AM that people are seeing on average a $6.20 increase in their paychecks. I sort of doubt this will make the Tax cuts more attractive to the working class.

“Americans still aren't on board with the new Republican tax law, and its unpopularity could be a problem for the GOP in the 2018 midterm elections.

According to a new survey from Gallup, just 39% of Americans said they support the new tax law while 52% disapproved of the law. That represents a slight improvement from Gallup's survey immediately after the law's passage in January, when just 33% of respondents supported it.

But the law remains significantly underwater, and many people aren't sure how it will affect their income.

According to Gallup:

9% of people surveyed said they expect their taxes to increase under the new law;
18% expect their tax burden to decrease;
17% said they expect their taxes to stay the same;
56% said they weren't sure.
According to the Tax Policy Center, 65% of Americans should see a tax cut of more than $100 in 2018, while 6% should see an increase of $100 or more.”

http://www.businessinsider.com/poll-trump-gop-tax-law-elections-2018-4

gilbar said...

igna says: "Just 39 percent of the 900 adults surveyed said they approved of the president’s performance, compared with 57 percent who disapprove—in a drop of four points on last month’s poll."

so, igna is saying that last month: trump was at 43% (43-4=39); which is ODD, 'cause last month she was saying that trump was in the low 30's

Math Is Hard!

Inga said...

“Over half of Americans get less than $20 [more] per paycheck.

Given the cost of living in 2018, an extra $20 won’t go far.

Ernest Tedeschi, a former senior advisor and economist at the U.S. Treasury Department, crunched the numbers on the tax plan at the start of April 2018. (Tedeschi was responding to news that Americans hadn’t seen changes in their pay.)

“Even if everyone adjusted their withholding perfectly, more than half (56%) of families would see a tax change of $20 or less (including a tax hike) per two-week period,” he wrote. That left the majority of Americans with less than $40 per month.

While it’s better than nothing, it’s certainly not 40% — or enough to make a difference in 2018. But Tedeschi’s analysis mentioned the real kicker in the GOP plan: a tax hike.”

https://www.blogger.com/comment.g?blogID=6329595&postID=5753476698513442551

Martin said...

I am not making a prediction, but an observation:

In 2016 all the right people and media were virulently anti-trump and had created a cultural atmosphere where people who were not anti-Trump, let alone actually pro-Trump, were embarrassed into silence--until they got to the voting booth where it turned out that the polls understated Trump's support by about 4-6% nationally.

I do not see anything in 2018 that would change that dynamic. In which case (again, not a prediction but an observation) the Democrats and the Left may be in for another big disappointment this November, and coming on top of 2016 and 24 months of effort, this one would be even worse.

This WaPo article coming right after the NYT describing Diamond & Silk as a minstrel show, are evidence.

Bay Area Guy said...

Inga -- simple question.

Broadly speaking, do you support a general tax increase on working folks or a general tax cut on working folks?

FIDO said...

Follow up question: should the Federal Fisc be on the hook for ever increasing state welfare programs in lost revenues?

Inga said...

“Broadly speaking, do you support a general tax increase on working folks or a general tax cut on working folks?”


Working folks is the optimal word.

I don’t support tax break for those who won’t trickle it down to the working class, as we are already seeing. I heard that there is s huge increase in buy backs for these corporations. That’s what they’re doing with their tax breaks. How is that helping their workers?

FIDO said...

Martin,

I agree with your observation. Push polls, which try to influence and shame are common and are very common on the Left. I do not respond to such polls and there are a lot of 'cord cutters' out there who cut their cable and land line phone.

This is a small and invisible demographic out there from pollsters and they are majority Right leaning...and they are ANGRY.

Angry enough to cut media cultural ties to the general society at least.

So the accuracy of these polls is probably off by 5-10%.

Ron Winkleheimer said...

@Inga

Lower corporate tax rates makes the US more attractive as a place for jobs, including manufacturing jobs. Which means a faster rising GDP and a lower unemployment rate. That's how it helps workers.

Inga said...

“Wherever Donald Trump’s tax cut was going, not much of it was going to ordinary families, and that not for long, since the individual-tax-cut part of the law expires at the end of 2025, in order to keep its handouts to corporations and small-business owners from shooting the federal deficit to Uranus rather than just to Mars. (Where it can catch a ride home, one presumes, in the Tesla that Elon Musk just shot into space).

But now, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, we know where the tax cut is really going. Surprise! It’s paying for stock repurchases by corporations, as Corporate America despairs of investing in much other than dividing the pie provided by near-record profitability into fewer and larger pieces.

Buyback announcements are up 22% this year to $67 billion in just six weeks, Goldman said in a note to clients. This follows a report by benefits consulting firm Aon Hewitt finding that 83% of large companies don’t expect the tax cut to boost salaries at all — just help pay for small bonuses companies like WalMart WMT, +1.35% and AT&T T, +1.20% gave workers, which reporters soon discovered were, themselves, skewed toward higher-paid, longer-tenured employees in many cases.”

https://www.marketwatch.com/story/now-we-know-where-the-tax-cut-is-going-share-buybacks-2018-02-22

Joshua Barker said...

@igna

All I know is that for the last 8 years, no matter how much I made or held back, I ALWAYS seemed to end up owing the IRS at the end of the year... this year, for the first time in forever, I got almost $6k back in refunds between state and Federal... And anecdotally, I know many people who also saw refunds for the first time in a while...

So not sure what numbers your quoting, but I'd hazard they don't reflect the reality on the ground of the hard-working people who've been taking it in the shorts during the entire Obama years finally seeing some much needed fiscal relief...

Bay Area Guy said...

Inga sez:

"Working folks is the optimal word.

I don’t support tax break for those who won’t trickle it down to the working class, as we are already seeing. I heard that there is s huge increase in buy backs for these corporations. That’s what they’re doing with their tax breaks. How is that helping their workers?"


Well, working folks are the people who work and earn money. Some people work and earn lots of $$, some work and earn modest amounts. This contrasts with people who don't work or earn so little that they don't pay any income taxes.

So, with that definition, do you generally support a tax cut for working folks or not?

FIDO said...

You mean...the stock portfolios of grannies all over Purple Florida are getting a major Trump Bump, right before elections, Inga.

Most grannies are more open minded than you, Inga. Particularly when cash is involved. Eight years of pinching pennies versus a year of plenty with Trump.

Things like that can turn a girls head...

Roy Lofquist said...

I remember when there weren't any polls - no TV either but that's another story. Way back then people talked about their horoscopes and biorythms were a big deal.

Polls are not, and never will be, "scientific". They are, at best, a SWAG - a Scientific Wild Ass Guess. There are many reasons for this. There's some math involved so I won't bore you with the details. The one reason that is super easy to understand is that their samples stink.

From Pew Research Center, May 15, 2012:

"It has become increasingly difficult to contact potential respondents and to persuade them to participate. The percentage of households in a sample that are successfully interviewed – the response rate – has fallen dramatically. At Pew Research, the response rate of a typical telephone survey was 36% in 1997 and is just 9% today."

http://www.people-press.org/2012/05/15/assessing-the-representativeness-of-public-opinion-surveys/

More than 9 out of 10 people won't talk to pollsters. Why? Nobody knows 'cause they ain't talking.

The Cracker Emcee Classic said...

"Blogger Inga said...
I heard this AM that people are seeing on average a $6.20 increase in their paychecks. I sort of doubt this will make the Tax cuts more attractive to the working class."

I would love to see the stats behind that claim. I'd happily bet that they're including entitlement payments as "paychecks". "On average" is the first clue of mendacity in any use of statistics as a political arguement.

FIDO said...

I'll talk!

I don't trust them and if I have political bile to spread, it isn't going to be to a pollster (one of the few pre-internet ways to vent followed by letters to the editor), it is on Althousean blogs and in the polls!

So if the internet was a Zucker free zone, it would be a free market where one could get some larger pulse of public opinion.

Perhaps, in their tremulous censorship, Zuck is revealing trends he doesn't like and in fact fears.

rehajm said...

I heard that there is s huge increase in buy backs for these corporations. That’s what they’re doing with their tax breaks. How is that helping their workers?

Full credit for a very good question for which there's a very good answer:

The economic argument for the corporate tax cut is that companies with good ideas, projecting a better after-tax return on new capital investments, will make such investments. This new investment will let companies expand and make their workers more productive. When that happens, companies will compete for workers, leading to higher wages. Not all companies should make new investments, and some of the best investments come from new companies that don’t have profits yet.

The economic logic of the tax cut is to create good incentives for profit-maximizing management teams—not to “trickle down” cash to workers from philanthropic management.

Inga said...

“New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness, however, suggests these corporations aren’t using their recently freed up cash to help middle class workers like the administration said it would.

The organization analyzed corporate data from primarily Fortune 500 companies, whose revenues are two-thirds of the entire gross domestic product (GDP), in addition to news reports and independent analyses of top U.S. companies. What they found was that these powerful corporations have spent a total of roughly $238,244,348,330 in stock buybacks since December 20, 2017 when the tax bill passed.

Working class Americans won’t see a penny of that.

Stock buybacks help those who own corporate stock, which typically means the already-rich. The wealthiest 10 percent of American households own 84 percent of all shares, while the top 1 percent own 40 percen. Roughly one-half of American households don’t own stock at all.“

Rusty said...

"Stock buybacks help those who own corporate stock, which typically means the already-rich."

Sigh. No. It helps everyone who has a 401K, or an IRA or invests in mutual funds. In other words, people with jobs.

rehajm said...

Americans for Tax Fairness don't understand how the incentives work.

Drago said...

Aide de Camp Inga: "But now, courtesy of Goldman Sachs, we know where the tax cut is really going. Surprise! It’s paying for stock repurchases by corporations,..."

LOL

Everyone's 401k's get healthier, and that's a bad thing to the lefties.

Well, of course it is.

The last thing the lefties want is all those uppity Deplorables being less dependent on govt.

Why, that would be terrible.

Every city a Caracas!

Rusty said...

Our tax bill for my wife and I was half of what it was last year. Thank you Mr. President.

DanTheMan said...

Signal to Inga ratio has "slightly" dropped on this thread...
And by slightly I mean tremendously.

Drago said...

I see Inga has no idea how 401k's work.

LOL

What an absolutely perfect democrat.

Michael said...

Inga
"Stock buybacks help those who own corporate stock, which typically means the already-rich."
LOL. So the increase of value in IRA, Roth, personal and pension fund accounts do not county.
When you cut and paste you might read the whole of what you are cutting and pasting. Whoever wrote this wants you to believe that only direct ownership of individual names count as stock investments.

The DOW is currently at 24, 663. It was 18,500 the day after Trump was elected.

Inga said...

“Sigh. No. It helps everyone who has a 401K, or an IRA or invests in mutual funds. In other words, people with jobs.”

Stock buybacks help those who own corporate stock, which typically means the already-rich. The wealthiest 10 percent of American households own 84 percent of all shares, while the top 1 percent own 40 percen. Roughly one-half of American households don’t own stock at all.“

Drago said...

It's funny watching the lefties and their LLR allies like Chuck attempt to spin up their talking points machines to tell Americans that those tax cuts are really no big deal.

LOL

You know who used to think a $40 raise per month was a big deal?

You already know the answer, don't you?

Well, here it is anyway:

https://obamawhitehouse.archives.gov/40dollars
"The thing is, $40 is real money for working families, as people all over the country told us. That money buys things like school lunches, the gas needed to get to work or visit ailing relatives, and co-pays for doctor visits and essential prescription medicines."

LOL

History began 15 minutes ago for Inga.

Again.

Drago said...

Perhaps Inga will explain to us when, preciselty, $40 a month went from being something very important and something to cheer to being absolutely worthless?

If I had to venture a guess as to what Inga and her LLR ally Chuck would say, it would be something like January 20, 2017.

rehajm said...

Rising equity prices help anyone with a pension fund invested in equities, rich or poor. A group that includes rich SOBs but also administrative workers, union workers, teachers, government employees. Know who benefits when government employee pension funds are richer? Taxpayers.

buwaya said...

"Working class Americans won’t see a penny of that."
"Stock buybacks help those who own corporate stock, which typically means the already-rich."

Biggest owners of equities in the US are pension funds, or the public through 401K's and IRAs. Granted, this skews rich, like me, but it certainly also benefits a large number of non-rich.

And "owning stock" is misleading. This does not count pension funds which own equities indirectly on behalf of their beneficiaries. This includes, just to start, every public employee in the US. Calpers (teachers, nurses, etc.) for instance, has improved its financial position. Not enough, because as in most cases it has made absurd promises, but much better than nothing.

So "working class Americans" have already seen "a penny". Your statement is absurdly extreme.

mockturtle said...

Sigh. No. It helps everyone who has a 401K, or an IRA or invests in mutual funds. In other words, people with jobs.

Exactly, Rusty. Where do [some] people think their retirement funds are invested? The Big Rock Candy Mountain?

mockturtle said...

IIRC, Bill Gates is a college dropout.

Inga said...

I guess it doesn’t occur to anyone that there are working class people who could use the extra bucks in their paychecks the most whose employers don’t offer a retirement package.

“Only 53% of small- to mid-sized businesses, those with five to 250 employees, offer a retirement plan, The Pew Charitable Trusts found in a survey.

Ninety-three percent believe their employees would prefer a higher salary or other benefits. Employers are much more likely to offer paid time off (86%) and health care plans (61%) than a retirement plan. In addition, only 45% offer dental or vision insurance and 22% tuition assistance.

Firms are more likely to offer a retirement plan if they are older and larger. The likelihood of a firm offering a retirement plan is either in its first years or as it approaches 75 employees. “This suggests that businesses may need to reach a point of financial stability before taking on responsibility for a retirement benefits program,” Pew says in its report, “Employer Barriers to and Motivations for Offering Retirement Benefits.””

buwaya said...

Trump is, above all, like that lucky cat totem in Chinese stores.
Or the Buddha in the corner. Or the Ganesh poster in an Indian establishment.

Lucky Buddha

He is a symbol of good luck, a God of prosperity.
He exudes an air of benevolent prosperity.

Do not discount the symbolic.

FIDO said...

I am not the 1%, but my equities gained 21% this last year since Inauguration Day.

Twenty One Percent.

Sorry to urinate on the Narrative. Pelosi, is she got a 21% bump, would be hard pressed to sneer at it.

buwaya said...

"Only 53% of small- to mid-sized businesses"

53% is not none, and, think about it, that's a lot of pennies.

mockturtle said...

Good point, buwaya at 12:30!

buwaya said...

And the anti-Trumpism is definitely having a suppressive effect on the economy.
This atmosphere of political instability in the US is by far the biggest immediate threat to global security.

Drago said...

mockturtle: "Exactly, Rusty. Where do [some] people think their retirement funds are invested? The Big Rock Candy Mountain?"

Easy guys.

We don't want to upset Inga and LLR Chuck with too much "truthiness" about this.

Let's just let Inga and LLR Chuck and all the rest of the usual suspects continue with their Give Back Your Tax Cuts campaign theme!

FIDO said...

How much of potential wage increases were instead siphoned off into Obamacare, Inga?

Bruce Hayden said...

“I don’t support tax break for those who won’t trickle it down to the working class, as we are already seeing. I heard that there is s huge increase in buy backs for these corporations. That’s what they’re doing with their tax breaks. How is that helping their workers?”

This is just silly. That money doesn’t just go “poof”. And that means that it will either end up under someone’s mattress, spent, or invested, and spending ultimately translates into investment, as other businesses invest to handle their increased sales. So, the only way that you don’t get growth is the mattress option.

Stock prices ultimately have to reflect a future expectation of dividends over time, discounted to the present, as well as factoring in risk. Have to, because of arbitrage. People who believe that the stock price doesn’t justify the expected dividends over time, etc, sell, and those who think the stock is undervalued, buy. When a company buys back its stock, they have essentially decided that their stock valuation is too low, and they can ultimately afford to pay higher dividends to the remaining stockholders, as contrasted to investing the money. The problem is that buying back stock typically results in a higher stock price, that makes it uneconomic to buy more stock back, compared to investing the money to grow the company. So, while companies can, at times, buy back their stock profitably, in the long run, they can’t. At some point, they will be able to make more money on their cash on hand by investing it in growing the company, instead of spending it buying up more stock.

Drago said...

buwaya: "53% is not none, and, think about it, that's a lot of pennies."

Hmmm, I'm getting a Tom Wolfe/Bonfire of the Vanities flashback with that "pennies" line.

Drago said...

I don't think you guys understand, Inga has link after link after link showing you that the tax cuts are meaningless and hurtful and all we have are the millions of people with more money in their pockets, more businesses hiring and more people making gains in their retirement accounts.

And if you don't listen to her, Inga will "taunt you a second time" with even more links!

LINKS!11!!1!!!1111eleventy

Bruce Hayden said...

“New analysis from Americans for Tax Fairness, however, suggests these corporations aren’t using their recently freed up cash to help middle class workers like the administration said it would.

Anyone here, besides the obvious, actually believes that an organization with a name like that provides anything besides highly political spin, as contrasted to solid, non-partisan, analysis?

Lewis Wetzel said...

You would never know it from reading Nobel prize winning economist Paul Krugman, but in keyensian economics, a tax cut is considered an economic stimulus. Government spending is not considered an economic stimulus unless it does so using borrowed money.

buwaya said...

"How much of potential wage increases were instead siphoned off into Obamacare, Inga?"

There is a BLS data series (Employment Cost Index) that answers your question.
Its a neat graphic. I have posted it many times. To no great effect of course.

Employment Costs Wages

I.e., The enormous increase in Employment Costs suppressed wage growth for three-five years. And, one can conclude, it also suppressed demand for labor, making the 2008-2010 recession into an extended labor depression.

buwaya said...

And, note, I don't get links from right wing sites.
If I need to know something, I find it and analyze it myself.
There is a tremendous amount of information on the internet, available to all.
Journalists and political activists are very bad at finding it or making sense of it.

You and I are likely much better qualified.

buwaya said...

Ross Perot, a smart, honest (relatively), but naive man, would certainly have stuck this in his famous flip charts.

Employment Costs Wages

He did not realize, until late in the game, that he was arguing with scoundrels. As we are also.

FIDO said...

Well, a lot of Democrats don't have or like jobs and never pay taxes, but are pretty bullish on benefits they don't pay for, so that chart is irrelevant to them

Rick said...

Have I forgotten the meaning of "slightly"?

You think they're using English but they're actually using Newspeak.

traditionalguy said...

I am hanging out in a orthopedic Hospital waiting room with a TV today. Trump as on live. Some smart people wondered how Trump always succeeded no matter how bad the MSM said he was. Naturally I explained it . And they understood for the first time what is going on.

My point is that 15 months of BS from the media about Trump has reached a tipping point. People know there is more to it. Trump has been at war with the Deep State CIA forces all over the world while we slept through it wondering if the MSM 's narratives were true. The public is ready for the rest of the story and it is coming to a theater near you this month.

Michael K said...

Only 53% of small- to mid-sized businesses, those with five to 250 employees, offer a retirement plan, The Pew Charitable Trusts found in a survey.

A business that is incorporated cannot offer a pension plan to the owners without offering it to employees. When I was in practice, my office was pretty small. When we had a group, we had five surgeons and 14 other employees. When I quit the group, I had three employees. Some doctors I knew did not offer health insurance, which I thought was pretty cheap, but everyone had to be in a corporate pension plan.

I suspect Inga does not know this.

buwaya said...

In case you have not seen these -

Lucky Cat - these are ubiquitous on the West Coast and all over Asia.

Lucky Cat

Ganesh - Ditto, Indian (Hindu) establishments -

Ganesh

wwww said...



One poll is not usually indicative of substantive significance. If you gonna do one national poll double that Not Usually Indicative of Substantive Significance. Always, always, always look at a groups of polls. Look at the Trend Lines Over Time. The Margin of Error. Don't Ignore. Is the poll phone or internet or both?

Let's say you wanna predict a political event? Let's say you wanna predict voting energy?

-Look at a variety of stuff, not just polls. Retirement patterns? Economy?

-Biggest Mistake. Assuming everyone reacts to events and forms opinions like you or your community.
-Consider different geographical regions. Consider different age groups. Consider the normals who don't follow politics. Consider the non-partisans. Consider the Independents.



buwaya said...

Alibaba - Wholesale Trump fugures -

I saw a bunch of this sort of thing out in Asia last year.
You will NOT see this in Chinese shops in San Francisco - they know the PTB of the place will not take kindly. But in Hong Kong, its another story.

Alibaba Trump - Wholesale

Michael K said...


Blogger buwaya said...
"How much of potential wage increases were instead siphoned off into Obamacare, Inga?"


The worst thing about Obamacare was how it destroyed the existing system and replaced it with industrial medicine that no one but Medicaid recipients like.

One obvious example is that physician productivity is way down. Bureaucracy is way up. The EHR is driving older doctors to retire and new doctors spend their time typing.

Then we get frauds like Theranos.

Bruce Hayden said...

I don’t think that a lot of people realize how much the corporate tax cuts are going to positively affect the economy, because they haven’t been on the other side, being one of those on the inside who has to decide what to do with all the extra money. For me, it is a bit scary. We have a family Sub-C corporation. Prior to Tax Reform, I was working to convert it to Sub-S. No longer really necessary. We got control in 2016. That year we paid a $4 per share per quarter dividend, in order to keep Retained Earnings from growing. Last year, I calculated that we could afford $5 per share per quarter, which is what we paid. At the first of the year, I calculated that we could pay $6 a share based on last year’s taxable income, utilizing last year’s tax rates, since we didn’t know yet how how the new rates would work with a non-calendar fiscal year. Turns out, that it is prorated. So, for the second quarter, I calculated that with the blended rates, we could afford $11 a share per quarter dividends, and when we got full benefit of the new tax rates, almost $12 a share. We are talking being able to better than double dividends, without dipping into Retained Earnings, in under two years. Two dynamics at work. First, sales are up. They were moving up already, and had been for a couple of years. Secondly, there has been a 40% reduction in federal corporate tax rates. That alone means that in states with low corporate rates, After Tax Income will close to double for many companies, just from the federal tax rate cuts. That money is starting to burn holes in the pockets of corporations around the country. They either have to invest it, pay it out in higher dividends, or sit on it (as Retained Earnings). But with economic confidence soaring, not much of the latter, esp with the low interest rates being paid. We are trying to invest, but since everyone else is doing the same, it is increasingly hard to do well. What is scary, to me, is multiplying these “problems” by hundreds of thousands, probably by millions, of companies around the country facing similar problems. Many don’t realize it yet, since the new tax rates have only been in effect for 3 1/2 months yet. But are starting to, as they file their quarterlies, and surely will when they go to pay their taxes for this year.

buwaya said...

To be fair, in Mexican markets you will sometimes find Trump pinatas.

A few weeks ago I saw 20+ of these on the sidewalk of a place on Mission.

Trump pinata

Unknown said...

“Because an 11-and-a-half inch cock is pretty big, even for a porn star and shit.”

I really wish there was an upvote button here. Greatness!

Gahrie said...

“Only 53% of small- to mid-sized businesses, those with five to 250 employees, offer a retirement plan, The Pew Charitable Trusts found in a survey.

Retirement is, and should be, the responsibility of the individual, and not his employer or the federal government.

Dickin'Bimbos@Home said...

MOST OF OUR MONEY GOES POOF because of the massive bureaucratic government worker pension graft scheme that will break us all.
The working class, the poor and the wealthy ALL pay for the a lot of money waste so that the insider class can have it easy. Pot holes? not so much.

Dickin'Bimbos@Home said...

When you hear a leftist whine about retirement plans - that's the whine of someone who thinks that unsustainable government bureaucrat retirement TAX PAYER FUNDED pension funds are the gold standard.

Small businesses cannot afford to give you what the tax-rapers can give you. Roll in the leftists to vilify the small business owner - right in Q.

Dickin'Bimbos@Home said...

...All while the leftist progressives who run everything hike your property tax into oblivion placing such a high burden on small business - we have no choice but to go out of business.
No problem - we can all go get a job and Google, Amazon or Assbook. Life is good in Pelosi America.


Leftwing overlords will tax you and you are gonna like it. Blame the wealthy or something.

walter said...

You hear a lot of similar mischaracterizations regarding movement in the stock market..barely 1% swing in a day constituting a "plunge" etc.

Bruce Hayden said...

Why haven’t we seen wages, salaries, and benefits increasing (yet)? Because, for the most part, they are a function of supply and demand, and, thanks to the feckless economic policies of Obama, Pelosi, and Reid, we were stuck for eight years in the Obama Recession, where we were well below full employment. But that has changed. We are reaching record employment, even for some traditionally underemployed segments of the workforce (e.g. black males). About the only growth that we can maybe expect to see in the labor force is the return of middle aged workers who left the workforce early, thanks, in part to Obama, etc, making it easy to qualify for SS disability (in order to hire how badly they had mismanaged the economy). Other than that, businesses are going to have to bribe workers away from other employers in order to grow. And, that is where and when wages, salaries, and benefits are driven up. Not by artificially pushing up the minimum wage, which only works to reduce low end employment, and the chance at entry level positions. But by growing the economy so that the only way for companies to grow, or even stay even, in a tight labor market, is to bid up what they pay their employees. Unfortunately for the Democrats, and their hoped for “blue wave”, we should start seeing this by election time this November.

n.n said...

Republicans lead by 60 percent to 31 percent among white voters without college degrees

Diversity and judgment. Does everyone do it?

Revitalization. Rehabilitation. Reconciliation.

Kevin said...

Am I misreading that? Have I forgotten the meaning of "slightly"?

Still reading WAPO and expecting objective reporting?

Bruce Hayden said...

““Only 53% of small- to mid-sized businesses, those with five to 250 employees, offer a retirement plan, The Pew Charitable Trusts found in a survey.”

What the left, which obviously includes Pew here, fail to understand, is that pensions are part of the cost of employing people, as are healthcare benefits, salaries, etc. In order for a company to maximize profits, they need to hire as long as the marginal utility of an added employee is greater than the cost they pay for that employee (which includes wages, salaries, pensions, healthcare, etc). Driving up pension costs leaves less available for wages and salaries. Ditto for healthcare costs. So, with pensions, employees of small and medium sized companies are given the choice of higher wages and salaries, without pensions, or the opposite. They get to vote with their feet, determine whether to work for one employer or another. The feds, and some states, have, by law, taken that option away from large companies, and their employees. The result of mandating pensions is either to decrease wages, and/or, drive down employment as the marginal cost of new employees increases, without increasing the marginal utility of those employees.

buwaya said...

As for employment -

This here is I think the "most important metric" in management-speak.

Employment-Population Ratio

It illustrates the recent US economic problem in one figure, and moreover lays out the task before Trump, or whatever parts of the US government with any pretense to responsibility.

So far Trump achieved a significant stepwise increase in employment simply by being elected. Beyond that, its not clear yet whether there has been a significant effect of Trumpian policies. There have been no miracles, but this is a lagging indicator.

n.n said...

WaPo has a globalist influence. NYT has a transnational, notably Mexican influence. Every other mainstream and "independent" press has their peculiar orientation. The traditional advice, backed by the analysis of signals in communication systems and channels, is multiple, independent sources and paths (i.e. diversity), and orthogonal coding schemes.

Jim at said...

Roughly one-half of American households don’t own stock at all.“

Tell that to their pensions, state and federal retirement accounts and every other, gawd damn retirement plan hinged on the stock market. Including yours.

You simply cannot be this dumb. You just can't.

DanTheMan said...

>>No problem - we can all go get a job and Google, Amazon or A**book. Life is good in Pelosi America.

Nancy promised me I could paint or write poetry instead, all because of Obamacare. Now that somebody else was paying for my health care, I could pursue my dreams...
Sadly, I still have to eat and pay rent. Time to elect more D's so I won't have to do that either.

I bet if I like my house, I can keep my house. It's the "if you like to eat, you can keep eating" that I'm worried about.

DanTheMan said...

>>You simply cannot be this dumb. You just can't.

Noise is random. No "intellect" to it.

n.n said...

Only 53% ... offer a retirement plan

Capital formation at the front or back end. They both have a value proposition, which depends on the people, environment, and climate.

Basil Duke said...

I really hope the left continues to lard their mid-term campaign message with the "Trump's tax cuts suck for everybody 'cept the super rich" mantra. Their delusions and disconnect from the real world are nothing if not fascinating to ponder. (I'm clearing an extra Ben Franklin every month, thanks to those cuts - over a year's time, four car payments.) Hopefully, they'll lead with that and follow-up with the D. Hogg-inspired gun-confiscation/firearm owners are motherf*****s and need to be murdered meme. Throw in the odd leftwing orc riot on a major campus and we've got ourselves a trifecta.

Michael K said...

Big Mike, the 33 Fords are very popular with hot riders but look at the restored ones. The Porches they rebuild are 356s, also called Outlaws. The cheap ones are replicas. The real ones are over $ 300k.One of their cars is $1 million.

Michael K said...

Hot rodders

Dickin'Bimbos@Home said...

That's all we are saying, Dan the Man.,
Everything should be free because I'm special. Pay up tax payer. You first mom and pop! Nancy needs to feed her babies.

robother said...

Igna (and Democrats in general) are ignorant of the fact that a rising stock market even benefits State and local pension funds that are structured to assume a 7 to 8 percent annual return. They aren't going to get that kind of a return from their bond portfolios. But according to Igna, the pension plans that support current and future retirees are "The Rich."

MadisonMan said...

"A new WaPo poll says Trump will never beat Hillary and she is a shoe-in"

How many times was that sentence, essentially, put out there by the press in 2016?

I believe absolutely nothing about a press story that spins Poll results.

Khesanh 0802 said...

@Bruce Hayden Thanks for taking the time to explain the impact of the tax act on your business' financials. I was duly impressed. Now , of course, those dividends aren't paid to real people who then go out and buy stuff, right? No, I am sure the recipients just tuck the money under the mattress or burn it just to prove the Dems know what they are talking about.

wbfjrr2 said...

Regarding polls, only Rasmussen polls likely voters, easily the most relevant target, though not infallible. All the others poll “adults”, which is useless since the percent that actually vote is low, or “registered voters” , many of whom don’t vote.

It would be interesting to see where the respondents were geographically. Given population sizes, one could assume democrat strongholds like CA MA,IL, NY are over-sampled.

Regarding white Trump voters without college degrees, I would bet my house that the percentages of black and Hispanic Hilary supporters without degrees dwarf the percentage of the white voters. Not that a degree confers intelligence, at least in the current education environment.

MikeR said...

"Tell that to their pensions, state and federal retirement accounts and every other, gawd damn retirement plan hinged on the stock market. Including yours." Makes sense. But makes no impact on your average voter, who expects to get his or her pension because it's "owed to him". The fact that he or she won't actually get it unless the stock market cooperates is a little out of most people's range.

Michael K said...

"But makes no impact on your average voter, who expects to get his or her pension because it's "owed to him".

I'm not so sure. I've talked to people who follow their 401k closely. Maybe government pensions are different but they are in danger anyway.

CWJ said...

"The gap will change once Michael Cohen's documents are revealed in court."

R/V,

People's opinion of you will change once the power of the state has, with animus, vacuumed up, disected, and selectively made public all your personal and professional records and documents as well. Is that really the country in which you want to live?

madAsHell said...

I can still find "2008 Obama" bumper stickers in Seattle, and lots of Bernie stickers. Strangely, the Hillary bumper stickers have vanished.

Birkel said...

NEWS FLASH:
Mueller's spokesperson seems to indicate the Michael Cohen to Prague story is wrong.

Women and fopdoodles hardest hit.

gpm said...

@Bruce Hayden

If you're using the corporate tax cuts to pay bigger dividends, you maybe aren't doing it right. The C corp. tax (never heard anyone say sub-C, sub-S, sure, but never sub-C) plus dividend tax is usually higher than the sub-S tax, particularly if you can get the new 20 percent deduction on the S corp. income. And then you can pay out the current income as dividends tax-free. So maybe should still be pushing for the sub-S alternative. C corp. only makes sense if the corp. is reinvesting the profits (and you need to keep worrying about stuff like the accumulated earnings tax, a horrific thing I've managed to forget about after 30 years of almost nothing but S corps. or, more recently, passthrough LLCS).

--gpm

Tyrone Slothrop said...

Oh, Inga. I retired two years ago after 31 years on the job. I never made above $60,000 a year, but I did have a 401K for about 25 of those years. I took it in the shorts in 2002 and 2008, but my account clawed its way back both times. When I retired it was a tidy sum, probably not enough, but better than a poke in the eye with a dirty scratch awl. I am not anywhere near what you would call rich, and I worked hard for every penny I have, but what is good for the corporations I am invested in is good for me. Incidentally, although I've taken a substantial disbursement from my account each month since I retired, my fund is still at about the same level as it was two years ago. Thanks for the bull market, President Trump!

Lewis Wetzel said...

4/16/18, 2:09 PM
Blogger Basil Duke said...

I really hope the left continues to lard their mid-term campaign message with the "Trump's tax cuts suck for everybody 'cept the super rich" mantra.


The current Dem strategy, pushed by Krugman and others, is to refer not to tax cuts, but to "future tax increases on the middle class."
This seems to be the best they can do -- tell voters that when the tax cuts expire, they (Democrats) will raise taxes on the middle class, and that this will be the fault of Trump & the GOP.
This is a strategy that has "fail" written all over it. I cannot imagine a middle class taxpayer so stupid that they would buy this argument.

Friedrich Engels' Barber said...

Of course, such polling probably does not take into effect, if Quill Corp. is reversed, that every small business owner will assume they are allowed to vote in every jurisdiction where they are being forced to pay tax. (I just spent an afternoon with small business owners going on and on - something about taxation without representation. Could thoughts like that start a revolution or something?)

Bruce Hayden said...

@Gpm - there are other issues with a sub-S conversion, notably the requirement to pay out all of the Retained Earnings first, which has its own tax consequences. Ignoring that, the difference is nowhere near as compelling anymore, with qualified dividends still getting preferential treatment. Another advantage of not converting is that you have more control over the amount of taxes you pay - nondistributed after tax income just accumulated as Retained Earnings. In a Sub-S, you are taxed individually, regardless of whether or not you distribute the income. Still, I keep Sub-S in the back of my mind, and expect to continue comparing after-all-tax income in both forms every year.

Phil 3:14 said...

"Funny that I can't find any cross-tabs on how black and Hispanic voters without college degrees polled.

I guess the implication that only dumb whites vote for Republicans doesn't have a counterpart on the other side."

If blacks vote Dem at around 90% does it make any difference as to college educated or otherwise?

Francisco D said...

Tyrone,

I don't think Inga has to worry about money. Actually, I don't think she understands it.

She married a doctor, which is why many women of her generation became nurses.

Unfortunately he passed and probably left her with a tidy sum. She can look down among us mere mortals who have less affluence in their retirement.

Darrell said...

Don't be a fuckhead and vote for a Democrat.
Ever.

President-Mom-Jeans said...

"I don't think Inga has to worry about money. Actually, I don't think she understands it."

While your second statement is certainly true in spades, I seem to recall her whining about not being able to scam disability money back in the day for a sketchy "back injury."

Inga said...

I seem to remember that not only is President Mom Jeans is a liar, he is a psycho liar. Seems like they’re coming out of the woodwork again lately. I don’t know this person and he doesn't know me, although he likes to pretend he does. He’s been doing this for years now. I suggest he seek therapy from Hannabal Lecter, aka Francisco D. Fransisco will fix him right up, with fava beans and Chianti.

Achilles said...

CWJ said...
"The gap will change once Michael Cohen's documents are revealed in court."

R/V,

People's opinion of you will change once the power of the state has, with animus, vacuumed up, disected, and selectively made public all your personal and professional records and documents as well. Is that really the country in which you want to live?



R/V wants to live in a country where leftists apply the law selectively to his political opponents.

This tactic would only be used on Lawyers who worked for Republicans. Obviously. They would never raid the offices of Sheryl Mills or Eric Holder.

The leftists are cheering on pure Nazism at this point and everyone is noticing.

John Pickering said...

I came to see if Ann was inviting us to her cafe to get her readers' views on the Hannity/ Michael Cohen news and find this. Wow, what a group you are!
But what do you all thin, after Michael Cohen filed papers in US court today saying Hannity was his clients, and Hannity says he's not? Have you seen this in the news? If you have, which one of those two is lying? Is it possible that the President's reputation could be damaged?

n.n said...

Minority votes do not matter in a democracy. Fortunately, we have neither a democratic form of government nor institutional diversity that denies equal rights.

Achilles said...

Jim at said...
Roughly one-half of American households don’t own stock at all.“

Tell that to their pensions, state and federal retirement accounts and every other, gawd damn retirement plan hinged on the stock market. Including yours.

You simply cannot be this dumb. You just can't.


Jim Jim Jim...

They have to be stupid. Their worldview depends on it.

Watch Inga stomp around in her Jackboots for a bit thinking that raiding a lawyer and immediately leaking details of his business affairs is ok. The instantaneous leaking of every client of Cohen is breathtaking in it's mendacity.

Mueller is going to jail now one way or another. Desperation is the only thing that could explain why he would do something so obscene.

John Pickering said...

Cohen acting for Trump throws Hannity under the bus! Is that a good thing, or a bad thing? Whose side are you on?

Achilles said...

John Pickering said...
I came to see if Ann was inviting us to her cafe to get her readers' views on the Hannity/ Michael Cohen news and find this. Wow, what a group you are!
But what do you all thin, after Michael Cohen filed papers in US court today saying Hannity was his clients, and Hannity says he's not? Have you seen this in the news? If you have, which one of those two is lying? Is it possible that the President's reputation could be damaged?


Actually it shows just how far you Stalinist fuckheads will go. You are just making it obvious you don't give a shit about the rule of law. But then again you all voted for Hillary Clinton.

It sure looks like you guys want this to end badly.

Francisco D said...

Inga said ... "I seem to remember that not only is President Mom Jeans is a liar, he is a psycho liar. Seems like they’re coming out of the woodwork again lately. I don’t know this person and he doesn't know me, although he likes to pretend he does. He’s been doing this for years now. I suggest he seek therapy from Hannabal Lecter, aka Francisco D. Fransisco will fix him right up, with fava beans and Chianti."

She is losing her shit folks. The delusional leftist world is about to come crashing down.

Meltdown in 5 ... 4 .. 3 ... 2 ...1 ...

Achilles said...

John Pickering said...
Cohen acting for Trump throws Hannity under the bus! Is that a good thing, or a bad thing? Whose side are you on?

What law would be broken if Hannity did hire Cohen? What difference would it make? Why do you think this matters?

Inga said...

To explain the Hannibal Lecter reference, lol.

Blogger Francisco D said...
Chuck said: ... "What are you all serving at your Comey-watching parties?"

Narcissism dip with bullshit chips and fried Ritmo brains.

I was thinking off a side order of dried up Inga twat, but I can't really stomach that.

I don't think anyone remotely sane has for quite a while.

4/15/18, 9:17 PM

Maybe he was drunk as a skunk and had a blackout?

Francisco D said...

She really isn't very bright, sorry to say.

I apologize for egging her on and annoying people who actually think.

John Pickering said...

Achilles, who advertises his ignorance with every click of his key board, shares with some of Ann's readers the impression that "fuckhead" is a meaningful insult. He relentlessly misses the point, because his brain functions poorly: it's not whether Hannity hired Cohen, but why one or the other is now lying about it. No one will expect Achilles to understand that distinction or to recognize whether it matters.

Inga said...

“I apologize for egging her on and annoying people who actually think.”

Hannibal gives a great deal of thought to his next meal and who it will be.

John said...


Blogger mockturtle said...

IIRC, Bill Gates is a college dropout.

And what a shame that is. Just imagine what he might have been able to accomplish if he had been able to get his degree.

I bitch a lot under my breath about Windows. Whenever I get really aggravated, I remind myself that Bill and Melinda Gates may be on the verge of an anti-malaria vaccine and I forgive him everything.

Some calculations are that 50% of all human deaths over the past 10,000 years have been from malaria. I suspect it is closer to 25%. (Michael, you are the expert on history of disease. Wanna chime in?) It kills tens of millions every year. Nobody ever thought that anything could be done about it.

Bill and Melinda figured that "couldn't" was too harsh a word and perhaps all these scientists didn't know what they were talking about. So, in their ignorance they set out to do something and did.

One more reason to use Windows.

John Henry

Birkel said...

John Henry,
We could just bring back DDT.

John Pickering said...

Inga has an admirable sense of humor about the vile remarks she gets from the like of FranciscoD, whose ability to think is ably shown by the way he writes.

walter said...

Windows are one of mynkind's best inventions.

walter said...

Obviously, The Doors even moreso.

John said...

Blogger Bruce Hayden said...


Stock prices ultimately have to reflect a future expectation of dividends over time, discounted to the present, as well as factoring in risk.

I think you need a "most" in there. There are a number of stocks that pay no dividend at all. Berkshire Hathaway and Amazon are two of the better known.

I don't know if Amazon ever contemplates paying a dividend. I have not heard that they are but have not heard that they don't.

Berkshire Hathaway will, as a matter of corporate policy, never pay a dividend. At least while Buffett and Munger are in charge. Buffett explained it back in the 70s and on other occasions since. (Paraphrasing) "Any dividends would be paid out of after tax profits and would then be taxed again to the stockholder. Then the stockholder has to find some place to invest the monies. We feel that we are much better able to invest the money for them and they do not have the double taxation."

When I first heard of B-H and Buffett back in 76 or so, The stock was about $300/share. Today it closed at $297,181. That is another corporate policy. Never split the shares because making them cheaper encourages speculation.

Most people think the goal of corporations is to make a profit. It is not. The goal is to increase shareholder value. Making a profit is one means of doing that. But profit is the means, not the end.

John Henry

John said...

Birkel,

Yes, we could bring back DDT and that would help immensely. That is still not as good as a vaccine.

Banning DDT was a scientific fraud on the scale of global warming. But, by the time DDT was banned, it was mostly black and brown people dying of malaria and who gives a shit about them? (Being facetious there)

Most people think that malaria is a tropical disease. It is now but wasn't always. It was the leading cause of death of Erie Canal (northern NY) workers. The biggest outbreak of the 20th century was in Archangel Russia near the arctic circle. It was endemic in large parts of the US up to the 30s or so.

Bring back DDT by all means. But keep working on the vaccine.

John Henry

John said...

What is it with the I.N.G.A. and fava beans. There seems to be some sort of fixation there. If there was ever a reason given, I missed it. Can someone fill me in?

John Henry

Francisco D said...

John Pickling said ... " blah, blah, blah."

Inga is gaining a following here.

That is impressive, in a sad sort of way.

hilman said...

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Obat Memanjangkan Penis Paling Ampuh

Cara Agar Penis Tahan Lama Saat Berhubungan Badan

Jamu Kuat Tahan Lama Di Ranjang

Tips Agar Pria Tahan Lama Bersetubuh

Cara Menyuburkan Sperma Kosong Pada Pria

Obat Penambah Ukuran Penis Secara Permanen

Tips Jitu Agar Pria Tidak Mudah Ejakulasi

Tips Agar Alat Vital Tidak Mudah Ejakulasi Dini

Cara Memperbesar Alat Vital Pria Dan Kuat Tahan Lama


ok google langsung taekeunnya web anu uing hungkul ulah anu batur mah, awas siah google mun teu di taekeun anu uing.

Birkel said...

A vaccine would be nice. A few hundred million avoided deaths in the interim would be pretty great, too.

Inga made random associations with another comment and decided Francisco D is a cannibal. So Inga keeps referencing "Silence of the Lambs". It is another in a long line of imbecilic posts. I liked her better when she was inventing children for every occasion.

chickelit said...

Didn’t Clarice work for the FBI? There’s that connection.

Inga said...

“Inga made random associations with another comment and decided Francisco D is a cannibal.”

Random associations? Hahahahaha!

Blogger Francisco D said...
Chuck said: ... "What are you all serving at your Comey-watching parties?"

Narcissism dip with bullshit chips and fried Ritmo brains.

I was thinking off a side order of dried up Inga twat, but I can't really stomach that.

I don't think anyone remotely sane has for quite a while.

4/15/18, 9:17 PM

Clarice Starling: You see a lot, Doctor. But are you strong enough to point that high-powered perception at yourself? What about it? Why don't you - why don't you look at yourself and write down what you see? Or maybe you're afraid to.

Inga said...

I’m beginning to wonder if Birkel isn’t Francisco’s sockpuppet...he’s very protective of him, interesting.



Bad Lieutenant said...



Blogger John Pickering said...
Inga has an admirable sense of humor about the vile remarks she gets from the like of FranciscoD, whose ability to think is ably shown by the way he writes.

4/16/18, 7:54 PM

John Pickering, do pretend to be a gentleman just for once and don't let anyone think with such remarks that Inga is affiliated with you in any way. The cheerful little fool (she is not truly evil) can defend herself, not well perhaps, but volubly at least, with enviable vigor, and requires no man's help, except with certain chores...As you surely know, your blog presence here pollutes those whom it touches like the track of a housefly, so let your decency, if any at long last, be your guide.

Inga said...

Now, now, Bad Boy, why do you scold him? I appreciate all the good words sent my way.

chickelit said...

@ARM: I'm glad you think Goldberg is a hack too. My lasting visual of her is twisting her pixie-cut hair into circles with a finger while Althouse took her to task over something on bloggerheads.

Achilles said...

John Pickering said...

“it's not whether Hannity hired Cohen, but why one or the other is now lying about it. No one will expect Achilles to understand that distinction or to recognize whether it matters.“

Lying about what?

You literally had an SS raid a political opponent to learn that Hannity may or may not have hired Cohen.

And you think that some pedantic garbage about whether Hannity hired a lawyer or retained a lawyer is meaningful when you are running roughshod over the rule of law and the fourth amendment.

Comey is your hero now. He will be going to jail soon. Mueller is working his way towards his own indictments. You all have done this to yourselves.

You can pretend I don’t understand your point. I understand who and what you are perfectly.



n.n said...

Planned Cannibal a.k.a. recycled-child.

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